The Senate is poised on Thursday to reject legislation that would extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits for millions of Americans. The vote could bring a quiet end to a months‑long Democratic effort to keep COVID‑era subsidies from lapsing on Jan. 1.
The Senate’s Decision
The chamber is expected to vote on two partisan bills, both of which are likely to be defeated. If the outcome follows the current trajectory, many shoppers on the ACA marketplaces will face a steep rise in premiums at the start of the year. The lack of a compromise has left the bill’s fate in the hands of hard‑line Republicans and Democrats.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina said, “It’s too complicated and too difficult to get done in the limited time that we have left.” Tillis has pushed Republican colleagues to extend the tax credits for a short period so that a broader agreement could be reached next year, but that effort has not succeeded.
Republicans’ Health Savings Account Plan
The GOP’s proposal would let the subsidies expire and replace them with new health savings accounts (HSAs). According to the plan, the money would go directly to consumers rather than to insurance companies that currently receive the subsidies. Democrats dismissed the idea as “dead on arrival.”
Thune announced on Tuesday that the GOP conference had decided to vote on the bill led by Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, chairman of the Senate Health, Labor, Education and Pensions Committee, and Idaho Sen. Mike Crapo, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. Several Republican senators have proposed alternate ideas, but no consensus has emerged.
In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson has promised a vote next week. Republicans weighed different options in a conference meeting on Wednesday, with no apparent consensus. Rep. Kevin Kiley, R‑Calif., has pushed for a temporary extension, which he said could be an opening to take further steps on health care. “If they fail to act and health care costs go up, the approval rating for Congress ‘will get even lower,’” Kiley said.
Democrats’ Firm Stance
Democrats who forced a 43‑day government shutdown over the issue have not wavered from their proposal to extend subsidies for three years without the new limits suggested by Republicans. The party’s leaders have made the policy a central political issue in several elections, betting that the millions who buy insurance on the government marketplaces want to keep their coverage.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said in November that “when people’s monthly payments spike next year, they’ll know it was Republicans that made it happen.” He added that the Thursday vote is “the last train out of the station.” Schumer also made it clear that Democrats will not seek compromise.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D‑N.Y., discussed the Democrats’ willingness to have conversations to end the shutdown, but not with addressing health care concerns.
The 43‑Day Shutdown
The shutdown, which lasted six weeks in October and November, was a direct result of the partisan impasse over ACA subsidies. A small group of centrist Democrats struck a deal with Majority Leader John Thune for a future health‑care vote, with no guarantee of success, in exchange for their votes to reopen the government.
Maine Sen. Angus King, an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, said the group tried to negotiate with Republicans after the shutdown ended. But he said the talks became unproductive when Republicans demanded language adding new limits for abortion coverage that were a “red line” for Democrats. “They’re going to own these increases,” King said of Republicans.
The Bigger Picture
The Senate votes are part of a broader pattern of partisan politics that has characterized Congress in recent years. Republicans pushed through a massive tax and spending cuts bill this summer using budget maneuvers that eliminated the need for Democratic votes. They also tweaked Senate rules to push past a Democratic blockade of all of President Donald Trump’s nominees.
The dueling Senate votes are the latest political messaging exercise in a Congress that has operated almost entirely on partisan terms. The lack of bipartisan talks has left the ACA subsidies in a precarious position.
Key Takeaways
- The Senate is likely to defeat both bills aimed at extending ACA tax credits, which could trigger premium hikes for marketplace shoppers.
- Republicans plan to replace subsidies with health savings accounts, a move dismissed by Democrats as “dead on arrival.”
- Democrats have maintained a firm stance to extend subsidies for three years without new limits, and have not engaged in meaningful negotiations.
The outcome of Thursday’s vote will determine whether millions of Americans can keep the subsidies that helped lower their health‑insurance costs for the past decade. The decision will also send a clear signal about the future of the ACA and the political climate in Washington.
