At a Glance
- A Polymarket account bet $30,000 on Maduro’s removal and earned over $436,759.61.
- The bet was placed just before the U.S. military removed Maduro from the country.
- Total market volume on Maduro-leave contracts reached $56.6 million.
- Why it matters: It shows how quickly speculative markets can move when political events unfold.
A Polymarket user placed a $30,000 wager on the toppling of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. The next morning, after Maduro was reportedly dragged out of bed by the U.S. military and removed from power, the account had earned roughly $436,759.61, according to Axios’s Herb Scribner. An archive snapshot on social media lists the profit at $407,920.12.
Betting Details
Polymarket offered six contracts on Maduro leaving power, with $56.6 million in total bets. $40 million of that was on him leaving by Nov 30 or Dec 31, which did not happen. The market also had odds on his release: a 1 % chance by Jan 9 and 15 % by the end of 2026.
Market Reaction
The sudden surge in bets shows how speculative platforms can amplify political uncertainty. While the exact source of the large payout remains unclear, the event illustrates the volatility of event-based markets.
Key Takeaways
- A $30,000 bet on Maduro’s exit yielded over $436,000.
- Six Polymarket contracts totaled $56.6 million in bets.
- Release odds were 1 % by Jan 9 and 15 % by 2026.
The episode underscores how event-based betting can quickly translate political drama into financial gains.
