> At a Glance
> – U.S. crude rose 0.3% and Brent 0.2% after overnight volatility
> – Chevron leapt 10% pre-market; Exxon and ConocoPhillips up ~4%
> – Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves but exports little
> – Why it matters: Any output surge could lower global prices, yet years of investment and $8B are needed first
Oil futures whipped through the night as traders digested President Trump’s seizure of Venezuelan operations and his pledge to send U.S. companies into the country holding the planet’s biggest crude reserves.
Price Action and Stocks
West Texas Intermediate erased early losses to trade 0.3% higher by 6:30 a.m. ET Monday. Brent mirrored the choppy session, settling 0.2% up.
Energy equities surged:
- Chevron – the only U.S. producer still licensed in Venezuela – jumped 10% before the bell
- Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips added roughly 4%
- Valero and Phillips 66 climbed about 7%
- Service suppliers SLB, Baker Hughes, Halliburton gained 7-9%
Two-Sided Bet
Traders weighed:
- Risk premium from possible regional instability
- Downside risk of higher future supply if Venezuela revives exports
Both benchmarks posted their largest annual drops since 2020 last year, and commodity house Trafigura already warned of a looming “super glut” before the weekend intervention.
Rebuilding Challenge
President Trump said Saturday:
> “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies … spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country.”
Yet restoring 1990s-level output needs an estimated:
| Requirement | Figure |
|---|---|
| Direct investment | $8 billion |
| Timeline | Years |
| Up-front risk taker | Unclear |
OPEC, which counts Venezuela as a founder member, left its collective production quota unchanged Sunday and offered no comment on Caracas.
Safe-haven assets rallied in tandem:
- Gold spiked $90, or 2.1%
- Silver advanced nearly 4%
Stock-index futures also pointed higher, with Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.8% and S&P 500 futures 0.3%.
Key Takeaways
- Overnight volatility left WTI +0.3% and Brent +0.2%
- Market seesaws between geopolitical risk and potential supply surge
- Chevron leads equity gainers thanks to existing Venezuelan license
- Years and $8B of investment required to revive output
- OPEC stays silent, keeping output policy steady
