A record 45% of U.S. adults now call themselves political independents, according to fresh Gallup data, driven largely by Millennials and Gen Z who are turning away from both major parties at unprecedented rates.
At a Glance
- 45% of Americans identify as independents, up from roughly 33% two decades ago
- Over 50% of Gen Z and Millennials reject both parties
- Democrats now lead 47% to 42% among leaned independents
- Why it matters: The parties’ bases are shrinking, forcing campaigns to chase a volatile middle that can swing elections on short-term dissatisfaction
The spike in independent identification marks the largest share Gallup has recorded and continues a steady climb that began in the early 2000s. While independents still tend to lean toward one party when pressed, their loyalties are increasingly transactional rather than tribal.
Democrats regain edge with independents
After three years in which independents tilted Republican during the Biden administration, the pendulum has swung back toward Democrats. When asked which party they lean toward, independents now break 47% Democratic to 42% Republican, erasing the GOP’s prior advantage.
That shift mirrors President Trump’s sagging approval among independents, Gallup notes, rather than a surge of enthusiasm for Democrats themselves. Favorable views of the Democratic Party remain stuck near historic lows, suggesting the gain is more anti-Trump than pro-Democrat.
The reversal reverts the landscape to where it stood during Trump’s first term, underscoring how quickly independent sentiment can flip. Party strategists on both sides view the bloc as crucial in battleground districts heading into November’s midterms.
Young people drive independents’ strength
Age is the clearest fault line. Majorities of adults born between 1981 and 2007-Millennials and Gen Z-now identify as independents, while pluralities of older cohorts continue to align with a party.
- Gen Z: 56% independent, up from 47% for Millennials in 2012
- Gen X: About 40% independent today versus 40% in 1992
- Baby Boomers and older: Roughly 30% independent
Young adults today are significantly more likely to spurn party labels than previous generations were at the same age, indicating the trend is structural, not cyclical. Analysts say the parties would need to overhaul their messaging to reverse it.
Independent Americans are increasingly the moderates
Self-described moderates are also abandoning the parties. 47% of independents now call themselves moderate, compared with about 30% of Democrats and 20% of Republicans.
Meanwhile, partisan liberals and conservatives have consolidated inside their respective tents:
- 60% of Democrats identify as liberal
- 77% of Republicans identify as conservative
- Moderate shares within each party sit near all-time lows
The ideological polarization leaves little room for centrist appeals that could attract independents without risking base turnout-a dilemma both parties face as the electorate’s middle keeps expanding.
Key Takeaways
- Independent identification has jumped from roughly 33% to 45% since 2005
- Younger generations show no sign of shedding their anti-party stance as they age
- Democrats currently benefit from independents’ discontent with Trump, but the advantage is fragile
- Moderates are vanishing from the parties, complicating efforts to build majority coalitions
With no indication the trend will reverse, campaigns must calibrate how far they can tack toward the center without demoralizing their ideological core.
