Saturday’s 5:00 pm matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles (9‑5) and the Washington Commanders (4‑10) promises a clash that could swing on a few key performances.
Game Overview
The Commanders have just won a game for the first time since Week 5, a win they’ve struggled to replicate since then. Their defense, which has allowed more than 33 points per game since that victory, is still a concern for the Eagles. Although the Eagles’ defense has been solid against the pass—allowing under 200 yards in eight of ten games and recording eleven sacks in their last two outings—they’ll face a Commanders offense led by Marcus Mariota, who has shown the ability to move the ball efficiently.
The Eagles’ offense, spearheaded by quarterback Jalen Hurts, has shown flashes of brilliance, but the Commanders’ line injuries could hamper their ability to protect Hurts. With key offensive linemen like Lane Johnson out with a foot injury, Fred Johnson dealing with an ankle issue, and guard Landon Dickerson out with a calf injury, the Eagles’ protection scheme may be thinner than usual.
Betting Lines
The spread favors the Eagles by 6.5 points at odds of -295, while the Commanders are +6.5 at +240. The total points line is set at 44.5. The consensus pick for the spread is the Eagles covering the 6.5‑point spread, and the over is the preferred choice for the total points.
Passing Props
- Marcus Mariota – 202.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 18.5 completions, 30.5 attempts
- Jalen Hurts – 217.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, 18.5 completions, 28.5 attempts
The Eagles’ defensive unit has been strong against the pass, registering less than 200 yards allowed in eight of the last ten games and accumulating 11 sacks in their final two matchups. With defensive tackle Jalen Carter absent, the Eagles should still have enough depth to keep the pressure on Mariota. Commanders rank 24th in pressure percentage and last in hurry percentage, indicating a potential advantage for the Eagles’ receivers.
**Picks: Mariota is projected to exceed his attempts, while Hurts is expected to exceed his yardage but fall short on attempts.
Rushing Props
- Saquon Barkley – 75.5 yards, 17.5 attempts
- Jalen Hurts – 27.5 yards, 7.5 attempts
- Chris Rodriguez – 43.5 yards
- Marcus Mariota – 29.5 yards
- Jacory Croskey‑Merritt – 26.5 yards
Washington’s run defense has been a challenge, allowing 4.8 yards per carry or more in eight of the last ten games. The Eagles’ offensive line is compromised by injuries, which may limit the effectiveness of their run game. The Commanders’ running back committee is also inconsistent, with Croskey‑Merritt showing potential when given play time but being shuffled in and out of the lineup.
Picks: Mariota is projected to exceed his yardage, and Barkley is expected to exceed his yardage as well.
Receiving Props
- AJ Brown – 60.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
- DeVonta Smith – 57.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Dallas Goedert – 38.5 yards, 3.5 receptions
- Terry McLaurin – 56.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Deebo Samuel – 45.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Barkley – 15.5 yards, 2.5 receptions
- Jahan Dotson – 8.5 yards
- Treylon Burks – 12.5 yards, 1.5 receptions
AJ Brown has shown a degree of inconsistency against the Commanders, posting 5/85/1, 8/130/2, and 8/97/1 in his three games against Washington. McLaurin faces a matchup against All‑World cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, making him a candidate for a fade. Hurts and Goedert have recently returned to the rotation, suggesting they could see increased targets.
Picks: Brown is projected to exceed his yardage, Goedert is expected to exceed both yards and receptions, while McLaurin is likely to fall short on yards.
Anytime Touchdowns
- Barkley – -120
- Hurts – +100
- Brown – +125
- Smith – +175
- Goedert/Rodriguez – +195
- McLaurin – +230
- Samuel – +250
- Mariota – +290
- Croskey‑Merritt – +410
- Eagles D – +750
- Washington D – +1100
The Commanders’ offense is not expected to score in large numbers, but Deebo Samuel, who operates out of the slot, stands out as the most promising touchdown candidate. Barkley, despite his line’s injury woes, is finding a rhythm, and Hurts could capitalize in goal‑to‑goal situations.
Picks**: Barkley, Brown, Hurts, and Samuel are highlighted as the most valuable picks for anytime touchdowns.
Key Takeaways
- The Eagles are favored to cover the 6.5‑point spread and to push the total over 44.5 points.
- Marcus Mariota is projected to exceed his attempts, while Jalen Hurts is expected to exceed his yardage but not his attempts.
- Saquon Barkley is anticipated to exceed his rushing yardage, and the Commanders’ running game is likely to struggle due to defensive strength and inconsistent backfield usage.
- AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert are the top receivers to watch for exceeding their projected stats.
- Anytime touchdown picks lean toward Barkley, Brown, Hurts, and Samuel.
The game will hinge on the Commanders’ ability to keep the Eagles’ offense contained, especially given the injuries on the Eagles’ offensive line. If the Eagles can protect Hurts and maintain their pass‑defensive edge, they stand a good chance of covering the spread and driving the total points over the 44.5 line.
Closing
With the Commanders’ recent victory and the Eagles’ defensive prowess against the pass, Saturday’s matchup offers plenty of intrigue for bettors and fans alike. Whether the Eagles can overcome the offensive line setbacks and the Commanders can sustain their defensive pressure will be the deciding factors in a game that could swing on a handful of key plays.
