In a month that has seen Trump’s approval among young men slide, Democrats have begun to close the gap that was once a clear Republican advantage.
The Young-Man Divide
The past year has turned the political focus onto men aged 18 to 30. Republicans have long counted on their support, while Democrats fear losing a growing, disaffected segment of the electorate.
Ken Martin, chair of the Democratic National Committee, told reporters after the November elections, “I never want to hear again that the Democratic Party has a problem with young men.” Yet the data show a shift.
A Yale Youth Poll released this month found that only 34 % of voters ages 18-22 and 32 % of voters ages 23-29 approved of Trump. Last year Trump captured 42 % of those under 30, a traditionally left-leaning group that had moved rightward from 2020.
Democratic Wins in the 2024 Race
Three high-profile Democrats-Abigail Spanberger in Virginia, Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey, and Zohran Mamdani in New York City-improved the party’s performance among young men. According to NBC News exit polls, each captured 7 % to 9 % of former Trump voters in their contests.
Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist, said a critical lesson for Democrats “is to stop treating young people and young men with the condescension that we often see and hear in the politics.” He noted that affordability was a clear differentiator: “What I found time and time again is that affordability was not something that needed any translation in young people’s lives, that this was something that was the difference between whether or not they could move out of their parents’ apartment and live on their own or not.”
The mayor’s campaign staged free events such as a soccer tournament and a scavenger hunt, and he is “thinking of how to spur more free or low-cost events in the city that young people can take part in.”
Spanberger and Sherrill also focused on affordability and small-business issues, echoing Mamdani’s message that economic concerns drive young men’s voting choices.
Republican Strategy and Trump’s Influence
Republicans view the young-man issue as a battleground for the upcoming midterms. A senior Republican strategist, speaking anonymously, warned that “there’s some bed-wetting going on amongst some folks who are like, ‘Well, Trump’s numbers have slipped with all these groups that he won big with last year,'” and added, “That’s just shortsighted. … The Republican ecosystem is just a little bit stronger in this space.”
The strategist also said the midterms will be decided by voters’ attitudes on Trump and the economy, predicting sentiment will improve as Trump’s agenda fully sets in. “There’s a lot of folks who feel that they are not where they should be, they’re falling behind,” he said. “There’s a general unsettlement. Young men are especially there when you look at job prospects, AI, there’s uncertainty in general. And you add in the fact that you can’t buy a house, you can’t find a girlfriend. … A lot of folks look to Trump for solutions.”
A senior GOP Senate aide added that “to the extent” Republicans are trying to get disaffected young men to the polls next fall, “they’re just hoping Trump does it” for them.
Senator James Lankford, R-Okla., told NBC News at the Symposium on Young American Men that Trump has “sought to bolster the standing of young men, ‘but I haven’t heard him speak specifically … about young men much, other than celebrating excellence and achievement, celebrating hard work.'” Lankford noted that he no longer hears much, if any, discussion of “toxic masculinity,” and that the right has taken sharper aim this year at diversity initiatives, claiming they hamper prospects of younger white men.
Economic Pressures Fuel Discontent
Economic sentiment appears to be the biggest factor behind the shift. Youth unemployment for ages 16-24 stood at 10.8 % in July, up year over year. For ages 20-24, the unemployment rate fell to 8.3 % in November from 9.2 % in September, but it remains the highest level since 2021.
The Harvard Youth Poll found that roughly four in ten under-30 voters were “barely getting by” financially. Christian G., 25, an independent from Clifton, New J., said the continued disappointment with the economy led him to vote for Sherrill after having backed Trump. “I feel like I expected certain things to be improved or certain things to become more affordable, and it did the exact opposite,” he said in a focus group observed by NBC News and produced by Syracuse University, Engagious, and Sago. “I would say for me it is kind of a testament to how, I guess, trust was lost over the year. Whereas I voted for him back in ’24, now, a year later, I’m feeling let down. I wanted to be a little more logical in my approach and vote for someone who I thought would benefit me more.”
State-Level Responses
Across the country, state officials are also addressing male-centric concerns. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore announced an initiative to hire more male teachers. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who said Democrats had “walked away” from men’s and boys’ issues, signed executive orders this year to address male suicide and launch a “California Men’s Service Challenge.”
Virginia state delegate Josh Thomas, who spoke at the Lafayette Company’s Symposium on Young American Men, laughed, “I’m laughing because it ain’t that hard if you’re being yourself,” and added, “And so I don’t know if it’s a good use of donor funds to try and re-create a new ecosystem or shoehorn people into an existing ecosystem. But we have … very earnest and sincere Democratic leaders who are men who can speak authentically about what it means to be a man at an earlier time and also what it means to be a man today.” Thomas noted a “different focus in the Democratic Party that maybe didn’t exist in October of last year.”
The Fight Is Far From Over
While some Democrats celebrate early gains, both parties acknowledge that the battle over young men will shape several critical midterm races. Republicans are still working to figure out how to get inconsistent voters to turn out without the president at the top of the ticket, while Democrats aim to build on their 2025 gains.
The fight over young men’s political allegiance will continue to influence the 2028 midterms and beyond.
Key Takeaways
- Trump’s approval among 18-30-year-olds dropped to 34 % (18-22) and 32 % (23-29) from 42 % last year.
- Democrats captured 7 %-9 % of former Trump voters in 2024 races, driven by affordability messaging.
- Youth unemployment remains high, with 10.8 % for ages 16-24 in July and 8.3 % for ages 20-24 in November.
The battle over young men’s support will shape the political landscape for the next few years, as both parties adapt strategies to win this pivotal demographic.
