In a startling revelation, two NATO-nation intelligence services have warned that Russia may be building a new anti-satellite weapon capable of unleashing a cloud of shrapnel over Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation.
The Weapon’s Concept
The intelligence findings describe a “zone-effect” system that would flood Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets. The pellets, just millimeters across, would evade detection by ground- and space-based sensors, making it difficult to attribute an attack to Moscow. The weapon would target multiple Starlinks at once, with the pellets possibly released by formations of small satellites yet to be launched.
Impact on Starlink and Ukraine
Starlink’s high-speed internet service is a lifeline for Ukrainian forces, providing battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other critical functions. The thousands of low-orbiting satellites have been pivotal for Ukraine’s survival against Russia’s full-scale invasion, now in its fourth year. Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine could be legitimate targets.
Expert Opinions
*Victoria Samson*, a space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, said, “I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t,” and added, “I would be very surprised, frankly, if they were to do something like that.” She noted that the weapon could be a thought-experiment, and that “people pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the U.S. side to build something like that or … to justify increased spending on counter-space capabilities.”,
*Brig. Gen. Christopher Horner*, commander of the Canadian military’s Space Division, replied, “I can’t say I’ve been briefed on that type of system. But it’s not implausible.” He went on, “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they’re willing to develop that and willing to go to that end, well it wouldn’t strike me as shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of development.” He warned that “you blow up a box full of BBs,” adding that such an attack would “blanket an entire orbital regime and take out every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that’s in a similar regime.” Horner emphasized that “it’s hard to see how clouds of pellets could be corralled to only strike Starlink and that debris from such an attack could get out of control in a hurry.”,
Technical Assessment
*Clayton Swope*, a space-security expert at CSIS, said, “If the pellets are not trackable, that complicates things but people would figure it out.” He noted that “most damage would probably be done to the solar panels because they’re probably the most fragile part of satellites, that’d be enough, though, to damage a satellite and probably bring it offline.” Swope warned that the debris could fall back toward Earth, potentially damaging other orbiting systems on its way down. He added that “the space chaos that such a weapon could cause might enable Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually having to use it” and that “it definitely feels like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of deterrence or something.”,
Current Status and Verification
The findings were shown to the AP on condition that the services involved were not identified and the news organization was not able to independently verify the conclusions. The U.S. Space Force did not respond to e-mailed questions. The French military’s Space Command could not comment on the findings but said, “We can inform you that Russia has, in recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space.”,
Russia has previously called for United Nations efforts to stop the orbital deployment of weapons and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear space weapons. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to messages from the AP seeking comment.
Broader Context
Russia has fielded a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of hitting low-orbit targets. Unlike a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy a defunct Cold-War-era satellite, the new weapon would target multiple Starlinks at once. The intelligence findings also note that the pellets would be so small that they would evade detection by systems that scan for space objects, making it hard to pin blame for any attack on Moscow.
Key Takeaways
- Intelligence agencies report Russia is developing a “zone-effect” anti-satellite weapon that could flood Starlink orbit with shrapnel.
- Experts warn that the weapon could indiscriminately damage many satellites, risking collateral damage to other orbiting systems.
- The weapon’s status is unclear; it may still be experimental, and Russia has denied deploying such a system.
The intelligence findings highlight the growing tension in space and the potential for new weapons to disrupt critical communications for Ukraine and other users of low-orbit satellites. Whether the weapon moves beyond the research stage remains uncertain, but the possibility has already spurred debate among space-security experts and national militaries about the risks of an expanding anti-satellite arms race.
