The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release shows a mixed picture for the U.S. labor market. In October the country shed 105,000 jobs, but in November it added 64,000, a swing that underscores the uneven recovery.
Early‑Year Momentum and the April Pause
The first four months of 2025 saw strong hiring, with an average of about 122,000 new positions each month. Beginning in May, that pace dropped sharply to roughly 32,000 jobs per month, a decline to one‑quarter of the early‑year rate. The slowdown began in the same month President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, marking a turning point in the hiring trend.
Monthly Fluctuations and Historical Context
Since May, payrolls have risen in four months and fallen in three. The three months of net job losses are a sharp departure from recent history; the last time any month recorded a larger net loss than gain was in 2020, when the pandemic forced millions of workers out of the workforce.
Concentrated Growth in Health Care and Social Services
JPMorgan Chase described the recent hiring pattern as a “concerning development.” The bulk of private sector job creation over the past two months came from health care and social services. In November, home health care aides and nursing home positions were the top growth drivers in health care. In social services, the fastest‑growing category was individual and family services, which includes support for the elderly and disabled.
Sage Economics on Sectoral Growth
Sage Economics noted that almost all of the year‑to‑date job growth came from the health care and social services sectors. This concentration suggests that the labor market is favoring roles tied to caregiving and support services.
Manufacturing Decline Amid Trump’s Revitalization Promise
Outside of government employment, which fell more than any other sector, the largest losses were an 80,000‑job decline in business services and a 63,000‑job drop in manufacturing, according to economist Zach Fritz at Sage Economics. These manufacturing losses occurred despite President Trump’s pledge to revitalize domestic manufacturing during his second term.
White‑Collar Cuts and Artificial Intelligence
White‑collar job cuts are occurring alongside rapid AI adoption in workplaces. While it is not clear how many positions are directly displaced by AI, Goldman Sachs estimated that universal AI deployment could displace 6‑7% of the U.S. workforce.
Rising Black Unemployment
The unemployment rate for Black workers rose faster than the overall rate in recent months. In May, Black unemployment fell to a low of 6.0%, just 1.8% above the overall unemployment rate that month. By November, the Black unemployment rate climbed to 8.3%, a full 3.7% higher than the broader U.S. workforce.
Comparative Job Losses for Black Workers
From May through November, the national unemployment rate increased by only 0.4%, whereas Black unemployment rose by 2.3%. This disparity highlights growing inequality in labor market outcomes.
Teen Unemployment Surge
Teen unemployment reached 16.3% in November, up from 13.2% in the September jobs report that preceded the government shutdown. This figure is the highest teen unemployment level since August 2020, when the pandemic kept many teenagers out of the workforce.
Sector‑by‑Sector Summary
- Health Care & Social Services: Lead job growth, with home health aides and nursing home staff driving gains.
- Business Services: Largest private‑sector job loss at 80,000 positions.
- Manufacturing: 63,000 jobs lost, contradicting earlier revitalization promises.
- Government: Fell more than any other sector.
Key Takeaways
- The labor market is slowing, with October’s 105,000 job loss offset by November’s 64,000 gain.
- Hiring has shifted heavily toward health care and social services, while manufacturing and business services are shrinking.
- Black unemployment is rising faster than the national average, and teen unemployment has surged to its highest level since 2020.
The data suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing uneven growth, with certain sectors expanding while others contract. The trend toward caregiving jobs, combined with losses in manufacturing and business services, paints a complex picture of the current labor market.
Closing Thoughts
The BLS report paints a detailed snapshot of the U.S. employment landscape. While some sectors thrive, others face significant setbacks, and demographic disparities in unemployment rates grow. Policymakers and businesses will need to interpret these trends carefully to address the evolving challenges of the labor market.
